Igiciro cy'icyuma cy'uruziga cya 2026

Mu rwego rw'inganda ku isi, ituze ryabaye inkingi ikomeye y'igenamigambi ry'ingamba. Ariko, mu gihe twinjira mu 2026, igihe cyo gukoresha ibikoresho bikoreshwa mu buryo butunguranye kandi buhendutse kirimo kurangira ku mugaragaro.

Ku bashinzwe amasoko n'abakwirakwiza mu nganda z'ubwubatsi, iz'imodoka n'iz'imbaho, hari ikintu gishya kirimo gukorwa. Hashingiwe ku makuru ariho ubu ku bijyanye n'uruhererekane rw'ibicuruzwa, ubwumvikane buke muri politiki y'igihugu, hamwe na politiki y'ifaranga ihindagurika, igiciro cy'ibyuma by'uruziga bikozwe neza biteganijwe ko kiziyongeraho ku kigero cyanibura 10%muri Q1 2026. Ibi si uguhindagurika kw'igihe gito; ni ugukosora imiterere y'ibintu bitewe n' "inkubi ikomeye" y'ibintu bitatu by'ingenzi: gukoresha amabuye y'agaciro y'ingenzi mu ntwaro, kuvugurura uburyo Ubushinwa bukoresha mu kohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga, ndetse n'ibiciro bizamuka byo kubahiriza amategeko ku isi.

Iyi nkuru irasuzuma ibi bintu kugira ngo igufashe gusobanukirwa "Impamvu" iri inyuma y'imibare n'uburyo bwo guhangana n'ihindagurika ry'isoko riri imbere.

1. Intwaro z'ibikoresho fatizo: Tungsten na Cobalt

Ikintu cyihutirwa cyane mu izamuka ry’ibiciro mu 2026 ni ugukomeza gutanga ibikoresho by’ingenzi mu bikoresho bigezweho:Tungsten na Cobalt.

Mu myaka ibarirwa muri za mirongo, Tungsten Carbide (WC) yabaye iy’inganda zikoresha ibyuma by’inkero bitewe n’ubukana bwayo bukabije no kudakoresha ubushyuhe. Ariko, Tungsten ntabwo ikiri iy’inganda gusa; yahinduwe mu cyiciro cy’ibihugu bikomeye (harimo Amerika, Umuryango w’Ubumwe bw’u Burayi n’Ubushinwa) nk’ “Ubutare bw’Icyangugu bw’Ingamba.”

• Ibura ry'ibikoresho:Guhera mu 2026, imvururu za politiki ku isi zatumye habaho igenzura rikomeye ryo kohereza ibicuruzwa ku mabuye ya Tungsten. Kubera ko Ubushinwa bwari bufite ububasha bwo kugenzura hejuru ya 80% by'uruhererekane rw'ibicuruzwa bya Tungsten ku isi, ingamba ziherutse zo kubungabunga ibidukikije n'uburyo bwo kubika inganda zo mu gisirikare imbere mu gihugu byagabanyije cyane umubare w'ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga byari bihari ku isoko rusange.

• "Ikibaya cya Cobalt":Cobalt, ikoreshwa nk'igikoresho cyo gufunga mu mitwe ya karuboni, ihanganye cyane n'urwego rw'amashanyarazi akoresha bateri (EV). Mu gihe intego zo gukora bateri zikoresha amashanyarazi ziyongera ku isi mu 2026, abakora ibikoresho barimo kugabanyirizwa ibiciro ku isoko n'ibigo bikomeye bikoresha bateri.

Ingaruka:Igiciro cy'ibikoresho fatizo byo kugura tips za karuboni nziza cyazamutseho hafi15-20%umwaka ku wundi. Ku cyuma cy'urukero cyarangiye, aho umutwe wa karubide ugaragaza agaciro kanini, iki kintu kimwe gituma ibiciro byiyongeraho 4-6% ku irembo ry'uruganda.

2. Irangira ry'inkunga: Isubiramo ry'imisoro y'ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga mu Bushinwa

Mu myaka makumyabiri ishize, abaguzi ku isi bungukiye kuri politiki y’Ubushinwa yo kugabanya imisoro ku bicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga, yafashije cyane ikiguzi cy’ibikoresho byakozwe n’Abashinwa ku kigero cya 13%. Icyo gihe cyararangiye.

Mu mpera za 2025, ubwo bwari buhanganye n'igitutu cy'ubucuruzi bwo hanze ndetse n'icyifuzo cyo kuzamuka mu ruhererekane rw'agaciro, Ubushinwa bwatangaje ivugurura ryimbitse ry'uburyo bwo kugabanya umusoro ku nyongeragaciro. Ku bicuruzwa bikoresha ingufu nyinshi kandi bikoresha umutungo mwinshi—icyiciro kirimo ibikoresho by'ibyuma n'ibikoresho bisanzwe bya karuboni—igabanuka ry'ibiciro byo kohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga ryagabanutse cyane cyangwa ryakuweho burundu.

Impamvu ibi ari ingenzi:Mbere, uruganda rw’Abashinwa rwashoboraga gutanga igiciro cy’amadolari 100 rugasubizwa amadolari 13 na leta, rugakora ku musaruro w’amadolari 113. Nyuma yo gukuraho iki giciro, uruganda ruhura n’ikinyuranyo cy’amafaranga yinjira cya 13%. Kugira ngo rukomeze kumererwa neza no kugumana inyungu nke, nta yandi mahitamo rufite uretse kohereza iki giciro ku muguzi mpuzamahanga.

Iri hinduka rya politiki ryonyine mu mibare risaba ko habahoikosora ry'ibiciro rya hafi 9-13%, hatitawe ku kiguzi cy'ibikoresho.

3. Ikiguzi cyihishe cya politiki y'isi: "Gushaka inshuti" no kubahiriza amategeko

Imiterere y'ubucuruzi ku isi yo mu 2026 yaracitsemo ibice. Guhuza imiyoboro y'ibicuruzwa—bikunze kwitwa “gukuraho ibyago” cyangwa “gushaka inshuti”—bitanga ikiguzi gishya kandi cyihishe mu mikorere.

• Ubushobozi bw'icyuma mu mubiri:Imashini zitunganya imisatsi myiza zikoresha ibyuma byihariye (nk'ibice 75Cr1). Uko inzitizi z'ubucuruzi ziyongera hagati y'ibihugu bitunganya ibyuma (nk'imisoro hagati y'u Burayi na Aziya), abakora ibikoresho bahatirwa gushaka ibikoresho mu buryo buhenze kandi "butekanye muri politiki" cyangwa kwishyura imisoro myinshi ku byuma bicuruzwa byinjijwe mu mahanga.

• Imisoro ya ESG na Carbone:Ubu ikoranabuhanga ryo kuvugurura imipaka ya karuboni (CBAM) ry’Umuryango w’Ubumwe bw’u Burayi riri gukora neza. Ibyuma by’inkaro, kubera ko ari ibikoresho by’icyuma, bigenzurwa na karuboni. Ikiguzi cy’ubuyobozi cyo gukurikirana, gutanga raporo no kwishyura ingano ya karuboni ya buri cyuma kirimo gushyirwa mu giciro cya FOB.

Icyerekezo cya 2026: Ishingiro rishya ry'ibiciro

Iyo duhuje ibi bintu, imibare ntabwo ihakanwa:

• Izamuka ry'ibiciro by'ibikoresho fatizo (Carbide/Icyuma):Ingaruka za +4% kugeza kuri +6%.

• Ivugurura rya Politiki yo kohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga:Ingaruka za +5% kugeza +10%.

• Izamuka ry'ibiciro mu mikorere/ibicuruzwa:Ingaruka za +2% kugeza kuri +3%.

Izamuka ry’ibiteganyijwe:Isuzuma ry’ibiciro rishingiye ku buryo burambye rishyira izamuka ry’ibiciro ku rwego rw’ibanze kuriKuva kuri 11% kugeza kuri 19%ku byuma by’inganda byiza cyane. Umuburo wa "10% by’inyongera" urimo kubona si amayeri yo kugurisha; ni ubuhanuzi bwiza bugaragaza ko abakora ibikoresho barimo kwihanganira bimwe mu bibazo.

Inama z'ingamba ku bafatanyabikorwa

Mu isoko riri kuzamuka, kudakora cyane birahenze. Turasaba abafatanyabikorwa bacu ibikorwa bikurikira:

1. Ibiciro bya buri gihembwe cya mbere/icya kabiri:Niba warateganyije ko ibikenewe mu gice cya mbere cya 2026 bizakenerwa, hita urangiza ibyo watumije. Ibicuruzwa bigezweho byakozwe mu gihe cy'ibiciro bya 2025 ni byo bintu by'agaciro kawe.

2. Hindura ujya kuri PCD Solutions:Nubwo igiciro cya mbere kiri hejuru, ibyuma bya Polycrystalline Diamond (PCD) bitanga ubuzima bunini bw'inshuro 30-50 z'ibya karubide. Mu bidukikije aho igiciro cyabyo kiri hejuru.gusimbuzaibiciro biriyongera (bitewe n'ibikorwa n'abakozi), Ikiguzi cyose cy'ubukode (TCO) cya PCD kirarushaho gukurura cyane.

3. Shyira imbere umutekano w'ibikoresho:Mu 2026, kuboneka bizaba ingenzi cyane nk'uko igiciro cyabyo kizaba gikenewe. Gira ubufatanye n'inganda nka KOOCUT zabonye amasezerano y'igihe kirekire y'ibikoresho fatizo kandi zifite umutekano mu by'imari mu bijyanye n'ihungabana ry'ingufu mu gihe cy'ihindagurika ry'ikirere.

Isoko ryarahindutse. Umutungo uhendutse kandi mwinshi wo mu myaka icumi ishize warashize. Ariko ku bateganya mbere y'igihe, 2026 itanga amahirwe yo guhuza isoko binyuze mu kubona isoko rihamye kandi ryiza mu gihe abanywanyi bahanganye n'ikibazo cy'ibura n'ihindagurika ry'ibiciro.