Mutengo webanga resaha rakatenderera ra2026

Muchikamu chekugadzira maindasitiri pasi rose, kugadzikana kwagara kuri hwaro hwehurongwa hwezvirongwa. Zvisinei, sezvatinopinda mugore ra2026, nguva yekushandisa maturusi anofungidzirwa uye asingadhuri iri kupera zviri pamutemo.

Kune vatariri vekutenga nevanogovera zvinhu muindasitiri yekuvaka, mota, uye kuveza matanda, chokwadi chitsva chiri kutanga. Zvichibva padata rezvino rekutengeswa kwezvinhu, kupesana kwezvematongerwo enyika, uye kuchinja kwemitemo yemari, mutengo wemachira esimbi anotenderera anobudirira zvikuru unotarisirwa kuwedzera neavhareji.zvishoma zve10%muQ1 2026. Uku hakusi kuchinja kwechinguvana; kugadziriswa kwechimiro kunokonzerwa ne "dutu rakakwana" rezvinhu zvitatu zvikuru: kushandisa zvicherwa zvakakosha, kugadziridzwa kwezvinosimudzira zvekutengesa kunze kwenyika zveChina, uye kukwira kwemitengo yekutevedzera mitemo yepasi rose.

Chinyorwa chino chinoongorora zvinhu izvi kuti zvikubatsire kunzwisisa "Chikonzero" chiri shure kwenhamba idzi uye kuti ungafamba sei mumusika usingachinji uri mberi.

1. Kushandiswa kweZvinhu Zvisina Kugadzirwa: Tungsten neCobalt

Chinhu chinonyanya kukonzera kukwira kwemitengo muna 2026 ndiko kuwedzera kwezvishandiso zvikuru zvemazuva ano:Tungsten neCobalt.

Kwemakumi emakore, Tungsten Carbide (WC) yave iriyo nzira inoshandiswa muindasitiri yekucheka zvidimbu zvemashizha nekuda kwekuoma kwayo kwakanyanya uye kuramba kupisa. Zvisinei, Tungsten haisisiri nzira yeindasitiri chete; yave ichiiswa muzvikamu zvitsva nenyika huru (kusanganisira US, EU, neChina) se "Strategic Critical Mineral."

• Kushaikwa Kwezvinhu:Kubva muna 2026, kusawirirana kwezvematongerwo enyika pasi rose kwakakonzera kuomesesa kwekutonga kwekutengesa kunze kwenyika kweTungsten ores. China ichitonga pamusoro pe80% yecheni yepasi rose yekupa tungsten, zvirambidzo zvezvakatipoteredza munguva pfupi yapfuura uye kuunganidzwa kwezvivakwa zvekudzivirira mukati menyika zvakaderedza zvakanyanya huwandu hwezvinhu zvekutengesa kunze kwenyika huripo pamusika wese.

• "Cobalt Cliff":Cobalt, inoshandiswa semuchina wekubatanidza mativi e carbide, inotarisana nemakwikwi akanyanya kubva kumabhatiri emagetsi (EV). Sezvo zvinangwa zvekugadzira ma EV zvichikwira pasi rose muna 2026, vagadziri vematurusi vari kutengeswa nemakambani makuru emabhatiri.

Mhedzisiro:Mutengo wezvinhu zvakagadzirwa zve premium carbide tips wakwira neanenge15-20%gore negore. Kune banga rekucheka rakapedzwa, apo muromo wekabhoni unomiririra chikamu chakakosha zvikuru, chinhu chimwe chete ichi chinoita kuti mutengo uwedzere ne4-6% pagedhi refekitori.

2. Kupera kweRubatsiro: Kugadziriswa kweMutero weKutengesa Zvinhu Kunze Kwenyika neChina

Kwemakore makumi maviri apfuura, vatengi vepasi rose vakabatsirwa nemitemo yeChina yekudzosera mitero yekutengesera kunze kwenyika, iyo yakawedzera mari yekushandisa zvishandiso zvakagadzirwa neChina ne13%. Nguva iyoyo yapera.

Mukupera kwegore ra2025, yakatarisana nekumanikidzwa kwekutengeserana kwekunze uye chishuwo chekukwira muchikamu chemutengo, China yakazivisa kugadziriswa kwakazara kwehurongwa hwayo hwekudzoserwa kweVAT. Kune zvigadzirwa zvinoshandisa simba rakawanda uye zvinoshandisa zviwanikwa zvakawanda—chikamu chinosanganisira simbi nemidziyo yekabhoni—kudzoserwa kwemutengo wekutengeswa kunze kwenyika kwakaderedzwa zvakanyanya kana kubviswa zvachose.

Nei izvi zvichikosha:Kare, mugadziri wekuChina aigona kupa mutengo wemadhora zana ($100) odzorerwa nemadhora gumi nematatu ($13) kubva kuhurumende, zvichiita kuti ashande nemadhora zana negumi nematatu ($113). Nekubviswa kwechikwereti ichi, mugadziri anotarisana nemusiyano wemari we13% pakarepo. Kuti vararame uye varambe vaine purofiti shoma, mafekitori haana sarudzo kunze kwekupa mutengo uyu zvakananga kumutengi wepasi rose.

Kuchinja kwemitemo uku chete, maererano nemasvomhu, kunoda akugadziriswa kwemitengo kweinenge 9-13%, zvisinei nemitengo yezvinhu.

3. Mutengo Wakavanzika weGeopolitics: "Shamwari-Shamwari" uye Kutevedzera Mutemo

Mamiriro ekutengeserana epasi rose egore ra2026 akapatsanuka. Kupatsanurwa kwecheni dzezvekutengeswa kwezvinhu—zvinowanzonzi “kubvisa njodzi” kana “kugovera shamwari”—kunounza mari itsva, yakavanzika yekushanda.

• Kusagadzikana kweMuviri weSimbi:Majeko emhando yepamusoro anovimba nesimbi dzakagadzirwa nesimbi dzakagadzirwa nesimbi (dzakaita se75Cr1). Sezvo zvipingamupinyi zvekutengeserana zvichikwira pakati penyika dzinogadzira simbi (dzakadai semitero pakati peEurope neAsia), vagadziri vanomanikidzwa kutsvaga zvinhu kubva kune dzimwe nzira dzinodhura, "dzakachengeteka mune zvematongerwo enyika" kana kubhadhara mitengo yakakwira pasimbi yepamusoro inotengeswa kunze kwenyika.

• Mitero yeESG neCarbon:Kabhoni yeEuropean Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) yava kushanda zvizere. Mabanga ekucheka, sezvo ari zvigadzirwa zvesimbi, ari kuongororwa nekabhoni. Mari yekutarisira yekutevera, kushuma, uye kubhadhara ganda rekabhoni rebanga rega rega iri kuverengerwa pamutengo weFOB.

Maonero a2026: Nheyo Itsva yeMitengo

Kana tikabatanidza zvinhu izvi, masvomhu haarambiki:

• Kukwira Kwemitengo Kwezvinhu Zvisina Kugadzirwa (Carbide/Simbi):+4% kusvika +6% mhedzisiro.

• Kugadziriswa kweMutemo wekutumira kunze kwenyika:+5% kusvika +10% mhedzisiro.

• Kukwira kwemitengo kweOperation/Logistics:+2% kusvika +3% mhedzisiro.

Kuwedzera Kwakafungidzirwa:Fungidziro yekuongorora inoisa kukwira kwemutengo wepakutanga pa11% kusvika 19%kune mapanga emhando yepamusoro emaindasitiri. Yambiro yekuti "kuwedzera kwe10%" yauri kugamuchira haisi nzira yekutengesa; asi, kana paine chimwe chinhu, ifungidziro yakanaka inofungidzira kuti vagadziri vari kugamuchira mamwe matambudziko.

Mazano Ehurongwa hweVabatsiri

Mumusika uri kukura, kusaita zvinhu zvinodhura. Tinokurudzira vatinodyidzana navo kuti vaite zvinotevera:

1. Mutengo weQ1/Q2:Kana wakambofungidzira kuti zvinhu zvichadiwa muhafu yekutanga yegore ra2026, pedzisa maodha ako nekukasika. Zvinhu zviripo parizvino zvakagadzirwa pasi pemitengo yegore ra2025 ndiyo pfuma yako inonyanya kukosha.

2. Kuchinja kuenda kuPCD Solutions:Kunyange zvazvo mutengo wekutanga wakakwira, maburi ePolycrystalline Diamond (PCD) anopa hupenyu hwakapetwa ka30-50 kupfuura hwecarbide. Munzvimbo umo mutengo wacho wakakwira.kutsivamitengo iri kukwira (nekuda kwemabasa ekufambisa zvinhu), Mutengo Wese weKuvaka (TCO) wePCD unova unokwezva zvakanyanya.

3. Isa pamberi kuchengetedzeka kwezvekushandisa:Muna 2026, kuwanikwa kwezvinhu kuchave kwakakosha semutengo. Batana nevagadziri vakaita seKOOCUT avo vakawana zvibvumirano zvenguva refu zvekushandisa zvinhu uye vane kugadzikana kwemari yekukanganiswa kwemamiriro ekunze.

Musika wachinja. Zviwanikwa zvakachipa uye zvakawanda zvemakore gumi apfuura zvapera. Asi kune avo vanoronga pachine nguva, gore ra2026 rinopa mukana wekusimbisa mugove wemusika nekuwana kuwanikwa kwakasimba uye kwemhando yepamusoro ukuwo vakwikwidzi vachitambura nekushaikwa kwezvigadzirwa uye kushaikwa kwemitengo.