Ixabiso leblade yesarha ejikelezayo ka-2026

Kwicandelo lemveliso yemizi-mveliso yehlabathi, uzinzo belusoloko lusisiseko socwangciso olucwangcisiweyo. Nangona kunjalo, njengoko singena ku-2026, ixesha lokusetyenziswa kwezixhobo ezingabizi kakhulu neziqikelelwayo liyaphela ngokusesikweni.

Kubaphathi bokuthenga kunye nabasasazi kulo lonke ishishini lokwakha, leemoto, nelemisebenzi yokhuni, kukho inyani entsha eyenzekayo. Ngokusekelwe kwidatha yangoku yothungelwano lokubonelela, ukungqubana kwezopolitiko, kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo yemali etshintshayo, ixabiso leeblayidi zesarha ezijikelezayo ezisebenzayo kulindeleke ukuba linyuke nge-aubuncinci be-10%kwiQ1 ka-2026. Oku akukokutshintshatshintsha kwexeshana; kukulungiswa kwesakhiwo okuqhutywa “sisivuthuvuthu esigqibeleleyo” sezinto ezintathu ezinkulu: ukusetyenziswa kwezixhobo zezimbiwa ezibalulekileyo, uhlengahlengiso lwezibonelelo zokuthumela ngaphandle zaseTshayina, kunye neendleko ezikhulayo zokuthobela imithetho yehlabathi.

Eli nqaku lihlalutya ezi ngxaki ukuze likuncede uqonde "Isizathu" esingasemva kwamanani kunye nendlela yokuqhuba ishishini eliza kutshintshatshintsha.

1. Izixhobo zezixhobo eziluhlaza: iTungsten kunye neCobalt

Eyona nto ibangela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ngo-2026 kukuqiniswa kwezixhobo eziphambili zokwenza izixhobo zanamhlanje:I-Tungsten kunye neCobalt.

Kangangamashumi eminyaka, iTungsten Carbide (WC) ibisoloko iyindlela eqhelekileyo kushishino lweencam zesarha ngenxa yobunzima bayo obukhulu kunye nokumelana nobushushu. Nangona kunjalo, iTungsten ayiseyonto nje esetyenziswa kushishino; ihlelwe ngokutsha ngamazwe amakhulu (kuquka i-US, i-EU, kunye ne-China) njenge "Strategic Critical Mineral."

• Iintsilelo zobonelelo:Ukusukela ngo-2026, uxinzelelo lwezopolitiko kwihlabathi jikelele luye lwakhokelela kulawulo oluqinileyo lokuthumela ngaphandle kwi-ores zeTungsten. Njengoko iTshayina ilawula ngaphezulu kwe-80% yekhonkco lokubonelela nge-tungsten yehlabathi, imiqathango yakutshanje yokusingqongileyo kunye nokugcinwa kwezicwangciso zamashishini okhuselo lwasekhaya kuye kunciphisa kakhulu isabelo sokuthumela ngaphandle esifumanekayo kwimarike ngokubanzi.

• "Ilitye leCobalt":I-Cobalt, esetyenziswa njengesixhobo sokubopha iincam ze-carbide, ijongene nokhuphiswano olunzima ngakumbi kwicandelo leebhetri zezithuthi zombane (i-EV). Njengoko iinjongo zemveliso ye-EV zisanda kwihlabathi liphela ngo-2026, abavelisi bezixhobo bathengiswa ngaphandle kwemarike ziinkampani ezinkulu zebhetri.

Impembelelo:Ixabiso lezinto eziluhlaza zeekhabhathi zeprimiyamu linyuke malunga15-20%unyaka nonyaka. Kwi-blade yesarha egqityiweyo, apho incam ye-carbide imele icandelo lexabiso eliphezulu, le nto inye iqhuba ukunyuka kwexabiso eliyi-4-6% kwisango lomzi-mveliso.

2. Ukuphela kwezibonelelo: Ukulungiswa kweRhafu yoThumelo lwaseTshayina

Kwiminyaka engamashumi amabini edlulileyo, abathengi behlabathi baye baxhamla kwimigaqo-nkqubo yerhafu yokuthumela ngaphandle eTshayina, eyaxhasa ngempumelelo iindleko zezixhobo ezenziwe eTshayina nge-13%. Elo xesha liphelile.

Ngasekupheleni kuka-2025, ijongene noxinzelelo lorhwebo lwangaphandle kunye nomnqweno wokunyusa ixabiso, iTshayina yabhengeza utshintsho olupheleleyo kwinkqubo yayo yokubuyisela i-VAT. Kwiimveliso ezisebenzisa amandla amaninzi nezisebenzisa izixhobo ezininzi—udidi oluquka imizimba yentsimbi kunye nezixhobo ze-carbide eziqhelekileyo—isaphulelo sokuthumela ngaphandle sincitshiswe kakhulu okanye sipheliswe ngokupheleleyo.

Kutheni oku kubalulekile:Ngaphambili, umenzi waseTshayina wayenokubonelela ngexabiso le-$100 aze afumane i-$13 evela kurhulumente, esebenza ngokusesikweni ngengeniso ye-$113. Ngokususwa kwesi saphulelo, umenzi ujongene nomsantsa wengeniso we-13% kwangoko. Ukuze aphile aze agcine inzuzo encinci, iifektri azinakukhetha ngaphandle kokudlulisela eli xabiso ngqo kumthengi wamazwe ngamazwe.

Olu tshintsho lomgaqo-nkqubo lodwa ngokwezibalo lufunaukulungiswa kwamaxabiso malunga ne-9-13%, ngaphandle kweendleko zezinto eziphathekayo.

3. Iindleko Ezifihlakeleyo Zezopolitiko Zelizwe: “Ukufuna Abahlobo” kunye Nokuthobela Imithetho

Imeko yorhwebo lwehlabathi ka-2026 iqhekekile. Ukwahlukana kweendlela zokubonelela ngeenkonzo—ezidla ngokubizwa ngokuba “kukunciphisa umngcipheko” okanye “ukugcina abahlobo”—kuzisa iindleko zokusebenza ezintsha nezifihlakeleyo.

• Ukuguquguquka koMzimba weNsimbi:Ii-saw bodies ezisemgangathweni ophezulu zixhomekeke kwiintsimbi ze-alloy ezikhethekileyo (ezifana ne-75Cr1). Njengoko imiqobo yorhwebo isanda phakathi kwamazwe avelisa intsimbi (ezifana neerhafu phakathi kweYurophu ne-Asia), abavelisi baphoqeleka ukuba bafumane izixhobo kwiindawo ezibiza kakhulu, "ezikhuselekileyo kwezopolitiko" okanye bahlawule iirhafu eziphezulu kwintsimbi yexabiso eliphantsi engeniswa kwamanye amazwe.

• Iirhafu ze-ESG kunye neCarbon:I-European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) isebenza ngokupheleleyo ngoku. Iiblayidi zesarha, eziziimveliso ezisindayo ngentsimbi, ziphantsi kohlolo lwekhabhoni. Iindleko zolawulo zokulandelela, ukunika ingxelo, kunye nokuhlawula unyawo lwekhabhoni yeblayidi nganye zifakwa kwixabiso le-FOB.

Imbono ka-2026: Isiseko esitsha samaxabiso

Xa sidibanisa ezi zinto, izibalo azinakuphikiswa:

• Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwezinto eziluhlaza (iCarbide/iNtsimbi):Impembelelo ye +4% ukuya kwi +6%.

• Uhlengahlengiso loMgaqo-nkqubo wokuthumela ngaphandle:Impembelelo ye +5% ukuya kwi +10%.

• Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okusebenza/othutho:+2% ukuya ku +3% impembelelo.

Ukwanda Okulindelweyo:Uqikelelo olucwangcisiweyo lubeka ukunyuka kwexabiso elisisiseko kwi11% ukuya kwi-19%kwiiblade zemizi-mveliso ezikumgangatho ophezulu. Isilumkiso esithi "ukunyuka kwe-10%" osifumanayo asiloqhinga lokuthengisa; ukuba kukho nantoni na, sisilumkiso esithembisayo esicinga ukuba abavelisi bayayinyamezela intlungu ethile.

Iingcebiso zoBuchule kuMaqabane

Kwimarike ekhulayo, ukungasebenzi kakuhle kuyabiza. Sicebisa amaqabane ethu ukuba enze ezi zinto zilandelayo:

1. Amaxabiso eQ1/Q2 angena:Ukuba uqikelele imfuno yesiqingatha sokuqala sika-2026, gqibezela ii-odolo zakho ngoko nangoko. Uluhlu lwangoku oluveliswe phantsi kwezakhiwo zeendleko zika-2025 lolona xabiso lubalulekileyo kuwe.

2. Shintshela kwiZisombululo zePCD:Nangona ixabiso lokuqala liphezulu, iiblade zePolycrystalline Diamond (PCD) zinika ubomi obuphindwe kangangama-30-50 kune-carbide. Kwimeko apho ixabiso liphezulu khona.ukutshintshwaiindleko ziyanda (ngenxa ye-logistics kunye nabasebenzi), i-Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) ye-PCD iba nomtsalane ngakumbi.

3. Beka phambili uKhuseleko loNikezo:Ngowama-2026, ukufumaneka kuya kuba yinto ebalulekileyo njengexabiso. Sebenzisana nabavelisi abanjengoKOOCUT abaye bafumana iikhontrakthi zezinto eziluhlaza zexesha elide kwaye bazinzile ngokwezimali xa kuphazamiseka ukuhanjiswa kwezixhobo zemozulu.

Imarike itshintshile. Izixhobo ezingabizi kakhulu nezininzi zeshumi leminyaka elidlulileyo azisekho. Kodwa kwabo baceba kwangaphambili, u-2026 unika ithuba lokuhlanganisa isabelo semarike ngokuqinisekisa unikezelo oluzinzileyo nolusemgangathweni ophezulu ngelixa abakhuphisana nabo besokola ngenxa yokunqongophala kunye nokuphazamiseka kwamaxabiso.